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Cleveland Volcano, Alaska, 2006. NASA image. |
The COVID-19 pandemic is the focus of attention in many ways during 2020 and is likely to remain so for months, if not years, to come. Because of its long duration other disasters are likely to occur: some could be technological (e.g., electrical grid failures, computer network problems, nuclear reactor difficulties) and some will inevitably involve the natural world of which we humans are a part. These additional disasters are being referred to as "compounding events" by the media and agencies involved in responding to them.
Here I describe two end-member types of disasters, and suggest that recognition of the spectrum is useful in comparing/contrasting different ways of preparing for and recovering from them. Agencies such as FEMA assume that their management structure and operations are universally applicable to all disasters with, perhaps, some fine-tuning. However, differences in disaster characteristics such as duration, geographic areal extent, population numbers, and civil structures affected can be considerable (e.g., a town affected by a landslide versus a nation and world affected by a pandemic).
Natural processes of the earth unleash energy in ways that are
sometimes harmful or, at best, inconvenient, for humans: earthquakes,
volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, landslides, floods. Ignoring the
biological component of the geosphere, such events have historically called such
events "
natural disasters," or "Acts of God" by the insurance industry. They are typically characterized by a sudden
onset and relatively immediate consequences. There are many historical
examples and our human societies have evolved various ways of coping
with them logistically, economically, and psychologically.
Preparation,
co-existence, recovery, and remediation are possible, at least to some
extent, even in the largest of events. The limited local extent of these disasters allows the
possibility of discussion and resolution.
There are other disasters that
involve the natural systems that support us. Rather than being driven
primarily by natural non-biological processes, this set of disasters is driven by human
behavior. Examples are climate change, desertification, acidification and nitrogen-contamination
of the oceans, compaction and erosion of fertile soils, and pandemics. They
typically have more gradual onsets than natural disasters and, because
of this, I refer to these as "
stealth disasters." (See Footnote for reference) Although they are
unfolding unnoticed or ignored by many, they are having near-term
consequences. At a global scale they are new to human experience.
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Dead zone (hypoxia), a biological desert in the Gulf of Mexico NOAA image | |
Our
efforts at preparation, co-existence, recovery, and remediation for stealth disasters lag far
behind those that we have in place for natural disasters. Furthermore,
the four stages of preparation--co-existence, recovery, and remediation--in stealth disaster situations involve many ethical
questions that typically must be solved in the context of much larger
cultural and social differences than encountered in natural disaster
settings.
Four core ethical principles may provide guidelines—autonomy,
non-maleficence, beneficence, and justice (e.g., Jamais Cascio). We, as a community, and our leaders can work
to ensure that as people take responsibility for their own lives
(autonomy) they have relevant information in usable form. To minimize
harm to others and the environment (non-maleficence), we can design and
implement sustainable ways to extract resources and dispose of waste. To
advance the welfare of humankind (beneficence), we can work on innovative new ways of living. This should strive for use of commodities that are easily-obtained,
and on replacements for others, aiming toward zero waste. And, we can strive toward social
justice by recognizing that social, ethical, legal and political issues
regarding resource use may be far more difficult than the technical
ones, and work within the (sometimes frustrating human) framework for
resolution of those issues.
The global scope of compound disasters raises
far more ethical issues than we have encountered with either natural or stealth
disasters taken one at a time. Just as we have learned (e.g., Hurricanes Katrina, Sandy, Maria, and the on-going pandemic
in the U.S.) that inter-agency response is crucial to successful
management of natural and stealth disasters, we can expect that global cooperation
in management and governance will be essential to the management of compound disasters.
Footnote: The Dynamics of Disaster by Susan W. Kieffer, Norton Press, 2013.
Adapted from an abstract at the EGU General Assembly April 7-12, 2013, Vienna, Austrai, I.D. EGU2013-2380.