Geology in Motion: The "natural gas for clean energy" flaw

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This blog provides commentary on interesting geological events occurring around the world in the context of my own work. This work is, broadly, geological fluid dynamics. The events that I highlight here are those that resonate with my professional life and ideas, and my goal is to interpret them in the context of ideas I've developed in my research. The blog does not represent any particular research agenda. It is written on a personal basis and does not seek to represent the University of Illinois, where I am a professor of geology and physics. Enjoy Geology in Motion! I would be glad to be alerted to geologic events of interest to post here! I hope that this blog can provide current event materials that will make geology come alive.

Banner image is by Ludie Cochrane..

Susan Kieffer can be contacted at s1kieffer at gmail.com

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

The "natural gas for clean energy" flaw

(If this contains garbage in the last paragraph, please note that I have tried to correct it and can't seem to do it in Blogger.)

Bill McKibben has an interesting op-ed in The Seattle Times today debunking the argument that switching from coal to natural gas will "save the planet." The argument goes like this: Replacing coal with natural gas does indeed cut down CO2 emissions, and this has been observed to happen as America's power plants have replaced coal with natural gas. However, natural gas is methane, CH4 and it is 80 times more powerful at trapping heat in the atmosphere on a molecule by molecule basis. Methane leaks during the drilling process and, McKibben asserts, if as little as 3% of natural gas leaks during fracking then it is WORSE for the atmosphere than coal.
For perspective, the methane budget in the atmosphere is complicated because there are both natural and human sources. Natural sources include wetlands, termites, and oceans. Human-related sources include fossil fuels, livestock farming, landfills, biomass burning, rice agriculture and biofuels. The attached figure (from Bousquet, P. et al. Nature 443(7110), pp. 439-443, 2006) illustrates details.


From this reference based on the Bousquet article cited in the text.

     A 2016 paper by Turner et al. in Geophysical Research Letters (DOI 10.1002/2016GL067987) examined methane emissions over a ~ a decade (2002-2014) from satellite data and surface observations. They found that global emissions increased by 17-22 Tg/a and that the U.S. methane emissions accounted for 30-60% of this increase. The emissions were primarily in the central part of the country but could not be attributed to definite sources, e.g., relative amounts from livestock and oil and gas sectors. McKibben's argument appears to be based on the 30% number and thus is probably conservative.
     Leakage rates may be higher than 3%: An aerial survey of a natural gas and oil production field in Uintah County, Utah on one day found emission rates between 6.2-11.7% of average hourly natural gas production for the month of February. Obviously more data are needed but rates are clearly above 3% in this case. The authors (Karion et al., JGR, doi: 10.1002/grl.50811) stated that "this high leak rate probably negates any immediate climate benefits of using natural gas instead of coal or oil and represents a possible air pollution hazard."
    On the other hand, some studies point to lower leakage rates, e.g., Peischl et al. (JGR, doi:10.1002/2014JD022697) found leak rates from <1 1.5="" 10.1002="" 2.1="" 6.3="" a="" agency="" al.="" and="" are="" be="" between="" ch4="" doi:="" emission="" environmental="" et="" fayetteville="" found="" from="" haynesville="" higher="" in="" inventory.="" leak="" marcellus="" northeastern="" northern="" of="" p="" pennsylvania="" protection="" rates="" regions.="" ren="" shale="" significantly="" southwestern="" study="" than="" the="" these="" to="" u.s.="" virginia="" west="">less than 1 percent to over 6 percent. It is possible that because of the reduction of coal and increase in natural gas use that the U.S. greenhouse gas emissions may have actually gone up during the Obama years. McKibben points out that "at least the Obama administration required drillers to keep track of how much methane they were leaking--one of the first acts of the Trump EPA was to scrap that requirement, apparently on the grounds that what you don't know can't hurt you." He then argues that the illusion that we are doing something to reduce climate change by switching to natural gas is hurting us because it is making it harder and slower to switch to solar power which emits no carbon at all (I guess that's if you don't count the fact that it probably takes carbon to produce solar panels at the this time.)

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Synopsis of Book and Reviews

If you want to learn a bit of the science behind earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, rogue waves, cyclones and hurricanes, and tornadoes, this is an introduction that weaves together stories of various disasters--some barely known to much of the world--their causes and dynamics, and some suggested actions we can take to protect ourselves. The book is available both in paper and as an audio CD.

"This is a fantastic book. I've recommended to colleagues at FEMA and am using it as a text for my disaster classes. It really demonstrates how knowledge of the environment should inform policy. It was a page turner for me!"--Dr. Trish on Customer Reviews at Amazon.com

"Sharp, timely, slightly terrifying science writing." --Kirkus

''A clear, engagingly wonky introduction to the field.'' --Publishers Weekly

''Geologist Kieffer argues that we don't understand disasters as well as we should. She contrasts 'stealth disasters' caused by long-term human impact, including climate change and soil erosion, with natural disasters or 'acts of God,' which are also increasingly affected by human actions . . . [A] highly accessible look at disasters.'' --Booklist

"Kieffer's brisk and lucid presentation has some of the relish with which surgeons reputedly regale each other with tales from the operating theatre. Laid out before the reader are the suppurating wounds, scalds, tremors, and scars acquired by the Earth over millennia, centuries, decades, or minutes."--Claudio Vita-Finzi in The Times of London

"A study on natural disasters [that] puts fizz into the physics." --Review in Nature by Roger Bilham

"Educates but also entertains... A fast-moving interesting bedtime read..." Review in Science by Donald Turcotte

"Photos enhance the drama of this highly accessible look at disasters." --BookProfessor.com by Vanessa Bush

"Geologist Kieffer analyzes recent earthquakes and eruptions with a clear eye on improving our planning for, and response to, these inevitable events."--Discover magazine, November 2013

"If you are an amateur weather geek, disaster wonk or budding student of the earth sciences, you will want to read this book. (If you're squeamish, skip the chapter titled "A Plague of Snakes.")--Seattle Times by Mary Ann Gwinn

"[T]he clarity of Kieffer’s writing, coupled with her careful choice of supporting graphics, makes the content engaging and accessible to a wide readership." Alison Stokes in TheTimesHigherEducation

Picked by Gone Bookserk.com as one of the "Top Science Books of 2013."

“In The Dynamics of Disaster, famed geoscientist Susan Kieffer merges stories and science in a fascinating introduction to the dangerous side of the Earth, with key insights for citizens and enough excitement to captivate the full range of students.”
—Richard B. Alley, author of Earth: The Operator’s Manual

"Both general readers and working scientists will enjoy this well-written book--and learn some things they did not know...Summing up: Highly recommended. Lower-division undergraduates through professionals; general audiences."--by Seth Stein in Choice Reviews Online (of the American Library Association), April 2014

"This [impressive] book ought to be placed in the hands of politicians, engineers, insurance assessors and, frankly, anyone who sees sense in understanding the processes and systems that guide our planet." --Geographical, December 2013, by Jonathan Wright

Nominated for 2014 Pacific Northwest Booksellers Association Award

A "read-alike"--Carnegie Medal Read-alikes, 2014, nonfiction

This book is part of a recent trend--one that is just beginning, but is likely to grow--in which scientists, especially young ones, seek to move beyond the "disasters are bad" view presented in beginner classes to a more sophisticated and nuanced view…Seth Stein in Physics World (U.K.)

"It is like a "Magic School Bus" outing for adults, with Kieffer acting as Ms. Frizzle, guiding the reader around the world to disaster hotspots, where she analyzes and breaks down the physical characteristics that contribute to events in those areas."--Summit Daily, December 20, 2013

#1 in list of Best Sellers: Geology, from May 2013 to March 2014. LibraryJournal.com

Victoria Raschke's Reviews (Jan. 09, 2019) Kieffer's explanations of the how natural disasters occur is perfectly suited to the interested layperson. The section on rogue waves was worth the price of admission in that it explains something that always seemed kind of supernatural. If you have any interest at all in understanding our living planet and why it sometimes feels like it would be happy to be rid of us, this is the book for you.

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